The Power of Evidence

There are two basic kinds of knowledge in our human experience.

Both are valuable and worthy of consideration in making decisions.

We have serious problems mainly when we confuse the two.

One is demonstrable knowledge, what we believe based on evidence.

The other is intuitive knowledge, what we believe based on feelings.

The distinction is a matter of life and death,
   especially in our present social and political environment.

The way we take in information is controlled by filters
   which work without much conscious thought.

Without the filters, we could not function.

We are inundated with information.

This is not just a product of the present information age.

Our senses have always provided much more information than we can use
   or benefit from.

The sound of a snapping twig underfoot may warn us of an approaching predator.

The same sound may indicate that we have stepped on a small branch
   and broken off a twig!

How are we to tell the difference?

Our lives may depend on it!

The sound of a politician speaking in the media or on the internet
   may bring us hope or fear.

The politician may be speaking truth or lying.

How are we to tell the difference?

Once again, I have to say:
   Our lives may depend on it!

The snapping twig or the words of the politician
   can be interpreted in more than one way.

Our own personal and collective interpretations
   will affect our chances of survival
     individually and nationally.

Our intuition can tell us many things.

It's based on past experience.

Unfortunately, it is also based on our predjudices,
   on past decisions
     regarding what is true
       and what is important.

We will not reach a level even close to certainty.

Some things are not subject to proof.

If we rely on evidence that has been shown to portray the truth,
    we have a much better chance of making good decisions,
      whether to escape a predator
         or to run away from a politician.

Those two creatures may be similar in more ways than we like to think.

Both predators and politicians are generally more interested in their own priorities
   than our well being.

Of course, it is natural for a predator who sees us as a potential meal
    to seek to use us for the predator's own needs.

The politician likewise may depend on us,
   and tend to use us to meet her or his own needs,
      but the politician is required to give lip service at least
            to a concern for the well being of the people
                  she or he is elected to serve.

Our own awareness of the importance of evidence in dealing
   with predators and politicians
      or for that matter with predatory politicians
          will provide much more for our own well being
              than our tendency to act on feelings and past experience.

In our time, so much information is coming at us constantly
    that we need ways to sort it according to truth and reliability.

I propose the concept of evidence as a key
     to the use of our mental filters
          in the sorting of information.

Otherwise we may well sift out information that we need
   just because it makes us uncomfortable.

The internet has already profoundly transformed the way we get information.

Search engines enable us to use key words, phrases or names
     to sort a wealth of information and published material
          from very recent to long past times.

The mathematical term "google" - originally meaning an extremely large number
      - has become a verb.

It refers, obviously, to the use of the most popular search engine
      to ferret out information that we want or need.

If we stop to reflect on it at all,
    we have become deeply dependent on the internet
         as a source of basic information.

I don't mean to imply that I think this is a bad thing.

It is a tool.

The way we use the tool can enhance our lives
     or lead us into deeper division in all our communities.

If we search for information based on the things we want to know,
    we will need to be sure that the information we find is helpful and useful.

This is where we need the power of evidence working on our side.

One piece of evidence for good information is that it is presented
   by more than one source.

News media is not as reliable as it once was,
    so a report by only one news source may or may not be reliable.

There are information sites dedicated to the debunking of false information.

Snopes.com is one of the best known and most useful,
   particularly in exposing urban legends.

Politifact.com has a tool called the truth-o-meter which rates statements
    on a scale from true to false to pants on fire.

Even those sites that claim to judge truth versus falsehood
    need to be subject to basic standards of evidence.

The very act of claiming that some idea is false
  needs to be verified
     because it is a powerful way of persuading people
         that one's opponent is unreliable.

You may not want to hear me say this,
   but a leading expert in the use of persuasion in politics in our time
      is Donald Trump.

He researches carefully what his audience wants to hear,
     and in one way or another tells them just that.

Watch for him to pivot carefully in the general election
    to positions that will be more acceptable to the wider electorate
          than his words to the base of the party under whose banner he is running.

By all means, don't take anyone's word for the truth or falsehood of any idea
    especially in this critical election year.

Do your own due diligence.

Be sure that the power of evidence is working for you,
     not against you.

Watch out for the appearance of truth.

Beware the trigger words.

Politicians on both sides, left and right,
   have used distortions, half truths, and appeals to predjudices
      to persuade people to join their followers.

If you look very carefully at the record,
     you may be surprised by which of the candidates
        currently in the running for President of the United States
             is in fact the most truthful.

That candidate is the one who has been most accused of lying and covering up the truth.

You see, in the use of persuasion
   the simple act of repeating something over and over
      lends a measure of credibility to it.

No matter how outrageous a statement may be,
    once it has been repeated about seven times,
          a majority of its hearers will begin to believe that it is true.

Those who rely on evidence rather than repetition
   will arrive at much more reliable and sound conclusions.

Evidence simply means substantiation.

If you make a statement, you need to back it up with good information.

If reporting is being done by both sides of a contentious issue,
     the things they agree really happened are more reliable
            than their interpretation of what it may mean.

If you have strong opinions on an issue,
     (and who does not these days?)
            beware the echo chamber.

We tend to look for and listen to information sources
    that reinforce what we already believe.

Seek out and hear what those who disagree with you may be saying.

In our times that may be painful.

Feel free to disregard the most obvious and egregious lies.

Turn away from those whose arguments are based on predjudice and bigotry.

Religious commitments are no guarantee of reliability -
     and neither are they signs of falsehood in and of themselves.

Those who use logic and well substantiated reporting need to be heard,
   regardless of their ideological commitments.

People are entitled to their own opinions.

They are not, indeed, entitled to their own facts.

There is still such a thing as reality versus unreality,
    and those of us who base our commitments
          on reality that can be verified by evidence
                will ultimately prevail.

I do hope and pray that we will not end up winning a Pyrrhic victory
       in which the loss and destruction of so much that we have held dear
              are so extreme
                  that winning will not matter to us at all.

We live in interesting and very dangerous times.

The only way we can move through them into a new and better day
      is by learning to work together
              on tasks whose necessity is verified
                     by evidence we can agree on,
                           not just by opinions,
                                  and much less
                                       by ideas promulgated by predators.

I suppose that my favorite example of working together
    is the whole issue of climate change.

While extreme weather is threatening life and property all over the world,
       there is still debate in the United States about whether it's really happening.

The people who most want to deny its reality
     are those in the most danger from it.

Obviously, that would not include people on disappearing islands in southern Louisiana
   or in the middle of the ocean.

They cannot deny the rapid disappearance of land
   on which they and their families have lived,
       sometimes for many generations.

The continuing denial does include people
     in tornado alley
         or in the frequently flooding regions of the southern U.S. and elsewhere.

Deniablity is now implausible,
   but predators who make their wealth on fossil fuels
      are spending huge amounts of money to persuade people
            and to encourage legislation
                 against renewable sources of energy.

Their profits will certainly be very short term,
   but they are clinging to them as though they were a necessity of life.

In fact, their profits will result in extreme loss of life and property
    if they are allowed to continue with no abatement.

The evidence is crystal clear.

It is very nearly too late even to do much mitigation
    of the consequences of climate change.

There still exists a narrow window of time and opportunity.

Relying on feelings, beliefs, past experience or lies that sound good
    will result in the closing of the present window of opportunity,
       and we are very close to the final chance.

The power of evidence can still save us, at least many of us.

If we speak in terms of truth that is verifiable,
    if we insist on actions based on real evidence,
        we can make a big difference, even in our difficult and interesting times.

It is not too late.

There is still a chance,
   and here I'm not just talking about climate change.

I'm talking about a way of thinking and a way of life.

We can pay attention to the power of evidence
    instead of the power of persuasion.

We can encourage others to do likewise.

The best way to do that is by example.

Provide evidence for what we say.

Don't attack what others say.

Encourage others to investigate for themselves.

The truth is out there, as the X-Files taught us to say.

It's not just out there.

It's in here too, in our hearts and minds,
   as we rely on good information
       that can be substantiated
          rather than on feelings and intuition alone.

Feelings and intuition certainly have their place.

They help us to jump to conclusions when we need to do so.

The important thing to remember is that we cannot stay there.

We cannot rest comfortably in the conclusions we have jumped to.

We have to do our research.

We have to seek different points of view.

We need to listen to the evidence,
  especially if our intuition is telling us, "Something is wrong here."

Keep digging for more evidence.

Ultimately, the power of evidence will correct our thinking
   and lead us to act in more sensible and helpful ways.

When we use the power of evidence to guide our mental filters
   instead of listening only to the things we want to hear,
      we will come to better conclusions.

When we act on better information,
   we can expect better results.

It will never be perfect, of course.

At the same time, we can provide for ourselves the opportunity
     for better information
        and therefore better decision making

  as we pay more attention to evidence based information
      than to information that simply sounds good to us.

More and more in our times,
   the power of evidence is important
     in helping us hear and heed the things we really need to know.

We can move together into a hope-filled future
     in which all of our efforts will be used toward the well-being of all.

Amen.

So mote it be.

Blessed be!


Closing Words:

The less evidence we have for what we believe is certain, the more violently we defend beliefs against those who don't agree.

- Neil deGrasse Tyson